VOTER ANALYSIS FROM IEBC DATA

BATTLE OF NUMBERS: PREDICTION OF THE MARCH 4TH POLLS.
Using the analysis from the latest opinion polls, and the IEBC data for traditional voter turnout per area and also considering each of the current geopolitical landscape and the number of registered voters per county for all the 27 counties I have tabulated the expected votes that will be cast for each of the two leading contestants and “others” to represent the rest of the contenders. 
I have assigned Central Kenya the highest voter turnout, ranging from 80% to 90% in most of their strongholds. This is followed closely by Nyanza and Rift Valley URP strongholds with between 70% and 85%. They are followed closely by eastern and Western. Coast, apart from Mombasa lags behind from as low as 45% to about 55%. North Eastern is allocated the lowest turnout from between 40% to 60%.
To understand my methodology, take for example in my analysis Kiambu County has 860, 716 registered voters. Being the home turf of the Jubilee presidential candidate the turnout will be high, so I allocate 90% turnout which translates to 774, 644 votes. I then allocate Jubilee 90% of the total votes cast, which translates to 697180%, while I allocate CORD 5% which translates to 38, 732 and I let the others share the other 5% which also translates to 38, 732. Another instance is Machakos which has 445 819 registered voters. I assume a voter turnout of 70% which translates to312, 073 votes cast. From the opinion poll analysis, I assign CORD 65% of the votes cast which translates to 202, 847 and Jubilee 30% of the votes cast which translates to 93, 621 while the rest share 5% which translates to about 15, 603. I go ahead to do this county by county for all the 47 counties.
After tallying, I found the expected total votes cast to be: 10, 685, 576 votes. This comes to 75% turnout which is 5% higher than IEBC’s expected turnout of 70%.
CORD emerges with 4, 903, 665 votes which is 46% of the votes cast, whereas Jubilee emerges with 4, 788,971 which is 45% of the votes cast. The others jointly share 1, 107, 088 votes which is 10% of the votes cast
From this result it is evident that the election is neck to neck and that there is no clear winner in round one.
THE MUDAVADI FACTOR:
Going further to tabulate Mudavadi’s votes from his strongholds, ie Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma and Busia counties, there is a total of 416, 137 votes which is about 4% of the total votes cast. This if added to any of the two leading contestants in round two would give them and absolute win of just about 300, 000 votes. Therefore Mudavadi might just be the King maker, and because these votes are more likely going to swing in favour of CORD, the madimoni might actually return to haunt Jubilee.
Caution should however be taken concerning just what kind of impact Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth will have on the overall picture especially in the Central Kenya tally. I give them very little credit in my analysis, especially in Central where I make assumption that 90% of the so called Kikuyu vote will go to Jubilee and that these two will have minimal influence on the vote.
Finally I credit Central and Rift valley with the highest turnout, but this could have different ramifications depending on how well both sides can mobilize their stronghold to turn out and vote. This is especially true for the so called CORDED areas because this analysis stays tru to the fact that Central Kenya usually mobilizes the highest voter turnout.
By Thomas Ikol.