WHO WILL WIN STATE HOUSE ?

How State House Race Will Be Won THURSDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2012 - 00:00 -- BY DOUGLAS KAUNDA After perusing many commentaries about Kenya’s political dynamics and especially those interrogating support bases of leading presidential contenders, a common narrative is clearly visible. This narrative is however one that ignores fundamental realities that inform mass and individual political decisions. For instance, a regular columnist writing from the US has woven so many theories that readers are lost in the labyrinth of logical deductions. Yet others even in their coherent presentations fall prey to the vice of subjectivity. It is astonishing how many commentators are committing a cardinal sin common in empirical research- ie assumptions! Arguments and counter-arguments, however convincing they may sound or appear, are just that — mere arguments. In Kenya’s political plateau, this is never far from the truth. The temptation to jump into conclusions and pass judgments or even attempt to shape agenda is too much. The pressure for columnists under the employ of certain presidential candidates to deliver, either through spin doctoring, framing and all manner of communication techniques is foreboding. Apparently, such columnists are prone to emerge as mere purveyors of wily propaganda. Unfortunately these protégés are adding little value to their benefactors’ objectives- that is to endear themselves to millions of Kenyans across ethnic blocks. Why do I pillory such columnists? Countless times theories have been proffered showing those in the political presidential galaxy, either as outright winners, threatened in their traditional ethnic bases, as projects, losing alliances opportunities, dumped, betrayed and many such euphemisms. Take it from me, these are blurred clichés aimed at delivering tailored massages to heterogeneous audiences. So much for communications gurus to think that this can solve the challenges of mass conversion. How many Kenyans can change their ‘msimano’ because of phrases? The truth of the matter is that politics in Kenya during this electioneering period is driven by three factors. These factors are complemented by statistical reality in the Master Voter Register. Take it with a pinch of salt- the determinant or if you may, the formula of who sits in State House is the person/s with the highest number of registered tribal mates. Call it ethnicity and you will be right! All conjectures and theories are caput. Recent parliamentary by-elections, which presidential front runners broke a sweat entreating their supporters to writ large the outcomes to the March 4 main event. has a story to tell. A leading TV station had hindsight to ask viewers whether they thought the results of the by-elections are a pointer of what to expect in 2013. That 87 per cent polled in the affirmative is no surprise! Pardon my digressing and back to the factors. The first determinant of the next occupier of the house on the hill come 2013 will be The Hague followed by ethnicity and euphoria. This is not news except that this time round few are taking these three factors seriously. A common theme is that with the new constitution, Kenyans have lost appetite for the awesome power welded by the Presidency – the constitution has watered presidential powers. Another common talk is that Kenyans are more conscious of the danger of ethnicity and will therefore vote for any candidate regardless of their ethnic backgrounds. Yet another line is that power devolution has created miniature governments, with governors and mini-treasuries to the extent that voters no longer care who becomes president or who does not. And so the story goes. Careful here brothers and sisters! New Constitution aside, I can attest that majority of Kenyans are still living in the old mindsets and to them vicarious existence is the norm rather than exception. This has been and will remain the bane of Kenya politics. These are the congeal bonds that have nurtured ‘our person’ syndrome. In other words, very few are compliant. It is a case of having an architecture whereby the hardware is excellent but the software is wanting. Suffice to say that The Hague phobia among two of the largest ethnic groups with a combined votes estimated at over halve of all registered voters in the country is in the offing. This has the potential to create a political alliance, but not necessary. The combination of phobia and euphoric will create an electioneering juggernaut/s, such as has never been witnessed in this country. In the meantime, similar mini juggernaut/s will be rolling, but one wonders whether they will have any effect. They may or may not. Talks about two horses and many donkeys will not apply or feature at all, at least among these two ethnic blocs as far as voting is concerned. The hang votes in the way of this political colossus will have few options but to join in the bandwagon, Kenyan style. Kenya really is an interesting country! Kenyan voters, strange beings! Ignoring these realities will serve no purpose other than to put oneself in denial mode.