TYRANNY OF NUMBERS READ BEFORE YOU COMMENT!!

TYRANNY OF NUMBERS READ BEFORE YOU COMMENT!!


Mutahi Ngunyi
POLITICS IS ABOUT NUMBERS: READ
TO THE END AND YOU WILL AGREE
WITH ME.
There e has been an uproar about
the recent projection of numbers I
had made giving JUBILEE an
advantage over CORD. Never in my
political analysis have I been
dismissed by the public like this
time round: even getting killed in
facebook. I refuse to die. But I still
insist that a political contest can
only be won on Numbers.
With the assistance of other
political analysts, we have done
some more research on figures, and
the general political mood on the
ground from various regions in the
country. Lets look at this numbers
from various regions:
CENTRAL- 2,190,476 VOTERS
NYANZA- 1,954,756 VOTERS
WESTERN- 1,434,987- VOTERS
COAST - 1,640,083 VOTERS
N.EASTERN- 504,482 VOTERS
EASTERN - 2,092,883 VOTERS
RIFT VALLEY- 3,373,853 VOTERS
NAIROBI- 1,778,903 VOTERS
It’s regrettable that most of us are
going to vote on the basis of tribal
orientation. For Jubilee they are
banking on central province, Rift
Valley , Nairobi and Easten for
Uhuruto to win the presidency.
If they manage to galvanize these
regions they can easily win during
the first round. That is superficial
but if you do a scratch on the
numbers, they pose a more
complicated puzzle for JUBILEE.
Jubilee alliance should not comfort
themselves with the numbers from
the presumed strongholds.
Otherwise the figures might be
better for CORD than they look in
the Opinion polls. Let’s sample the
traditional Nairobi, Eastern and Rift
Valley provinces which ought to give
JUBILEE to a first round win. Central
is purely uncontested for JUBILEE
like Nyanza is CORDED. What are
these numbers and where do they
belong? I strongly consider the fact
and reality on the ground that most
Kenyans are likely to vote along and
through ethnic influence.
1. RIFT VALLEY
Elgeyo Marakwet- 134,290
Nandi - 254,788
Baringo- 171,013
Kericho- 290,102
Bomet - 254,405
(sub total 1,104,598 voters- jubilee
controlled)
In these regions, William Ruto has a
superb command. There might be
little unfaithfuls from Kericho and
Bomet Towns which are somehow
cosmopolitan. The son of Moi might
also do some little spoils.
Kajiado- 315,053
Narok- 253,086
Turkana-120,345
West Pokot- 107,894
Samburu- 56,662
Trans Nzoia- 231,352
Uasini Gishu- 318,717
Laikipia- 170,267
Nakuru- 695,879
(sub-total:2,269,255 – contestable
votes for CORD and JUBILEE )
In these regions JUBILEE can not
confidently claim even a 60%
command: The Maasai Narok and
Kajiado not at any point have they
shown to be faithful followers of
William Ruto. They are more
inclined to ODM CORD.
Samburu,West Pokot might be a
fifty fifty scoop for both CORD and
JUBILEE. Trans Nzoia is a home of
none. Luhyas, Kisii farmers and
kalenjin mix gives neither CORD nor
JUBILEE an edge. Nakuru is more
cosmopolitan and if you scan the
register of Nakuru County, Kisiis,
Luhyas ,Akamba, Luos alone hit at
258,624 voters. From these counties
alone in Rift Valley, it shows that
JUBILEE doesn’t purely command
the region. Two thirds of its votes
are for split.
If Raila gets 1million votes or
something close from Rift Valley, it
will be a nightmare for Jubilee. With
Raila’s schemes and political antics,
he can cut through these numbers
which is practically possible. The
math of numbers might not work
for Jubilee in RIFT VALLEY with its
cosmopolitan nature.
2.NAIROBI : (1,778,903 voters)
Now that elections will be held in
march, the IEBC calendar has
forced the village voters to vote
from the city as they wont be
travelling home for Christmas
holidays as they used. No wonder
we had a voter registration turn out
of 138% in Nairobi. As per Register
scan Luos, Luhyas, Kambas and
Kisiis who are CORD inclined tally to
1,192,037 if they will be faithful to
their ethnic spirit like their village
counterparts then they are likely to
vote for CORD. I hope JUBILEE are
aware of this variance in numbers.
There is no doubt RAILA will emerge
a winner from NAIROBI by 1M votes
plus.
3. EASTERN
Eastern has for long time been
supporting presidential candidates
from central under the GEMA
banner. Does JUBILEE count on the
same support? Can charity Ngilu
deliver from KAMBA land?
Let me sample the numbers from all
the counties in EASTERN.
Makueni- 300,086
Machakos- 445,819
Kitui- 323,624
(sub-total:1,069,529) undisputed
CORD command.
Meru- 483,517
Isiolo- 52,617
Marsabit- 104,408
Embu- 226,989
Tharaka- 155,823
(Subtotal:1,023,354 voters)
Isiolo and Marsabit might be an
equal share or a slight win for
CORD.
Meru, Tharaka and Embu have been
for long faithful in GEMA. With the
presence of William Ruto do they
have an upper hand in the jubilee
coalition? With these displacement
most voters especially the youth
might vote outside GEMA .The task
of JUBILEE is to make this people to
feel still at home which has proven
difficulty especially to get Kiraitu
off his BUS and Join theJUBILEE
mainstream. Whom does JUBILEE
look upon to deliver these votes
from this region for presidency ?
Kiraitu is very busy campaigning for
his gubernatorial cause. JUBILEE
might win from this region with a
very small margin which is far
below my previous projection. And
this is a big minus for JUBILEE
coalition.
Jubilee would have won the
presidency if they had pure control
of EASTERN, NAIROBI AND RIFT
VALLEY .
There is a big likelyhood for CORD
leading in COAST, EASTERN,
NAIROBI, WESTERN, NORTH
EASTERN AND NYANZA as opposed
to JUBILEE leading in RIFT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL only. RAILA might be
a round one winner if he gets
1million votes from Rift valley
which is practically possible.
If RAILA doesn’t win during round
one, he will definitely win during
the run off on the basis that:
-The HAGUE calendar will be very
active for UHURUTO
- some JUBILEE pointmen who are
trying to go against the grain, like
Prof. Ongeri, Balala, Mwakwele and
Ngilu would have fallen. And Jubilee
will look a two tribe oufit.
- All the fallen presidential
candidates by Reason of Raila’s Age
with the assumption that he will be
a one term president, will pull their
weight behind Raila in the Name of
salvaging the country from
economic sanctions. JUBILEE can
not withstand the euphoria.
I beg to leave as I take this
opportunity to congratulate in
advance the 4th president of the
Republic of Kenya His Exellence
……………… Go and vote to proof or
disproof this. Don’t just argue here
in facebook.